More than 1000 likely voters in Michigan were polled regarding their November vote for President. The Trafalgar poll was taken from August 14th through the 23rd (During the Democrat National Convention). The majority, 46.6% of respondents, reported they would vote for President Trump versus 45.2% for former Vice President Biden. 4.6% indicated they would vote for another candidate and 3.6% said they were undecided.
Polls in Michigan have been consistently in favor of Biden, by a modest margin. The prior Michigan poll taken by Trafalgar from June 16-18 showed Biden in the lead with 46.2% and 45.3% in favor of Trump.
The recent increase in violence in Democrat-run cities may have caused a change of heart in the polls, as American voters imagine their future under Trump versus Biden. Various city leaders including Mayor Ted Wheeler (Democrat) of Portland, OR, Mayor Bill de Blasio (Democrat) of New York, NY, Mayor Jim Kenney (Democrat) of Philadelphia, PA and Mayor Lori Lightfoot (Democrat) of Chicago, IL, have consistently demonstrated an unwillingness to quell the growing violence in their cities. Lightfoot and Wheeler have publicly clashed with the President, as he offers help to address the violence and they have angrily rejected the support (including Mayor Lightfoot who assigned Chicago police officers to protect her personal residence).
The crime rates have seen a dramatic increase in major U.S. cities over the last few months, according to Forbes. Chicago has seen an increasing number of protests that have turned to violence, led by BLM and Antifa (antifa.com) agitators – July was the most violent month in 28 years, with 105 murders compared to a total of 44 in July 2019 (a 140% increase). There has been a dramatic increase in Chicago homicides comparing the first six months of 2019 against the same months in 2020, from 284 up to 433 (a 53% increase). The murder count grew in Benjamin Franklin’s great city of Philadelphia from 187 to 247 (a 32% increase) and New York’s numbers went from 176 to 227 (a 29% increase). On July 30, the Portland Police Department reported that there had been 63 shootings in July 2020, compared to 28 shootings in July 2019 (a 125% increase). August continues to see increases in violence in those cities and around the nation, not yet fully measured.
In the same poll, likely voters were also asked about their choice in the upcoming Senate election. John James, Republican, and Army combat veteran was favored 48.1 to 46.6% over incumbent, Democrat, junior Senator Gary Peters for a Senate seat with the potential to also flip to Republican control.
Here is what is really at stake in the November election: Trump advocates do not want to see Biden bring the same kind of leadership to the White House that Democrats in the cities above, currently plagued by violence, are bringing to their own jurisdictions. He, by his own admission, supports the same approaches and policies those down-ballot leaders are exhibiting, and the results are not good.